Tariffs and Tweets: Trading in the Trump Era

The earliest traders navigated oceans and deserts, betting on wind patterns, seasonal rains, and demand for labour, land and machinery. These were slow, calculated journeys where information moved no faster than the ships carrying it. Today, we operate in a radically different landscape, where a single tweet can move markets in seconds. This is the age of real-time risk – where geopolitical tensions, central bank pivots, and political soundbites land in markets like thunderclaps. But in this high-frequency, volatile environment, one quality stands above the rest: agility.

This is especially true in what many call the “Trump or Protectionism market” - characterised by thin liquidity, sharp price swings, and unpredictable investor sentiment. Amid these challenges, 36ONE Asset Management exemplifies the power of a nimble long/short investment strategy and agile trade execution. Backed by a disciplined investment philosophy and robust infrastructure, volatility isn’t just a risk - it’s an opportunity.

Agility is not recklessness

Agility is often mistaken for impulsiveness, especially in markets that react sharply to headlines, such as sudden tariff announcements or geopolitical tweets. These episodes create buy or sell cascades – a chain reaction of trading activity where one trade triggers others, creating a snowball effect that drives prices rapidly in one direction, often disconnected from underlying fundamentals. These dynamics have been particularly pronounced in the market landscape shaped by the Trump administration.

We view agility not as a reckless chase for returns or speculation, but as a disciplined, informed responsiveness to constantly evolving conditions. In an environment dominated by unpredictable rhetoric, abrupt policy shifts, and sharp intraday volatility, waiting for perfect clarity can be costly. Markets rarely wait for all the facts to be known, by the time clarity arrives the opportunity is often gone.

The pursuit of false precision can paralyse decision-making, leaving managers stuck on the sidelines as prices move decisively. Equally risky is an inflexible investment approach in a market that refuses to stand still. We’ve learned that success under volatility hinges on the ability to reassess quickly, challenge assumptions, and pivot when necessary. True agility is not just about speed - it’s about clarity of thought, conviction in execution, and the humility to revise course when conditions demand it. In markets shaped by noise and nuance, that combination is what turns volatility into opportunity.

What it means to be nimble

Our downside risk management is a constant and deliberate effort, not left to chance or an after-the-fact adjustment. We use futures and put option structures as part of our risk-management toolkit - these instruments allow us to hedge exposures swiftly and surgically when volatility spikes or market signals deteriorate. This ability to protect capital without being forced sellers of high-conviction positions is critical in turbulent markets, especially when headlines trigger sharp, sentiment-driven moves. Importantly, our hedging strategies are not static overlays - they are actively assessed and recalibrated in line with market conditions and evolving fundamental views.

What underpins this flexibility is a culture of intellectual honesty and urgency. We challenge our assumptions daily, understanding that markets won’t pause for comfort or consensus. We are unafraid to change our views when the facts demand it. In times of market stress or unexpected news flow, we’ve hosted impromptu research calls on short notice to reassess positions, debate risks, and recalibrate strategy. This commitment to swift, informed decision-making enables us to remain agile without falling into reactivity. It’s this balance - staying grounded in a disciplined process while remaining adaptive in real time, that allows us to navigate volatility effectively. In uncertain markets, that combination is not just an advantage, it’s what defines the line between survival and long-term success.

Our integrated trading system

At the core of our new portfolio and trading management system, MAIA - launched in Q3 2024 - is a next-generation platform that optimises the entire trade lifecycle through seamless integration of front- and middle-office processes. This advanced infrastructure gives us a clear first-mover advantage in today’s volatile and fast-moving markets. By enabling real-time execution and risk visibility, our portfolio managers as well as traders can act decisively - executing large blocks when pockets of liquidity emerge and holding back when spreads become excessively wide. In an environment driven by headlines and rapid sentiment shifts, this level of agility is not just advantageous - it’s essential. Our platform equips the team with the agility and insight needed to navigate complexity, manage risk proactively, and stay ahead of the curve.

MAIA’s speed and flexibility support’s impromptu re-calibrations, whether deploying futures or options, adjusting order limits, or responding to geopolitical developments. These capabilities allow us to act without delay when conditions change. By centralising a wide array of data - from market feeds to research inputs to execution analytics - MAIA creates a cohesive environment where strategic investment ideas flow effortlessly into precise and timely trading decisions. It transforms high-level investment thinking into executable action, eliminating the friction that can delay opportunity. Ultimately, MAIA enhances our agility by removing the constraints of rigid execution frameworks - ensuring that in a market where every second and every datapoint matters, we remain decisive, adaptive, and ahead of the curve.

The information, opinions and any communication from PPS Investments Group, whether written, oral or implied are expressed in good faith and not intended as investment advice, neither does it constitute an offer or solicitation in any manner. Furthermore, all information provided is of a general nature with no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person. It is recommended that investors first obtain appropriate legal, tax, investment or other professional advice prior to acting upon such information.

PPS Investments Group is a subsidiary of Professional Provident Society Insurance Company Limited, a Licensed Insurer and Financial Services Provider. PPS Investments Group consists of the following authorised Financial Services Providers: PPS Investments (Pty) Ltd(“PPSI”), PPS Multi-Managers (Pty) Ltd(“PPSMM”) and PPS Investment Administrators (Pty) Ltd(“PPSIA”); and includes the following approved Management Company under the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act: PPS Management Company (RF) (Pty) Ltd (“PPS Manco”). Financial services may be provided by representative(s) rendering financial services under supervision. www.pps.co.za/invest

36One Asset Management (Pty) Ltd is an authorised Financial Services Provider.